"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you might not discover how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. Without a doubt Team A and when it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at different times is a type of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and if it wins you bet double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the next team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can also be made on two games kicking off simultaneously. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the initial game wins, he'll put the same amount on the next game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is actually two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the second bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game has not gone off yet. If MB66 , you should have action on the next game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap in time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the second game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books will not allow you to complete the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the first team in the "if" bet loses, there is absolutely no bet on the second team. No matter whether the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the first team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win will be $200. This is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, you then lose your full bet. If you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, you then only lose the vig.
Bettors soon discovered that the way to avoid the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses is to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Instead of betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team A second. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a complete win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as in the event that you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the first "if" combination, and nothing would go onto Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would go onto to Team A. You would lose $55 on each one of the bets for a complete maximum lack of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 when the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 when the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split whichever team wins and which loses. It computes this way. If Team A loses you will lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next combination of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the initial "if" bet and $5 on the next "if" bet gives you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you will lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the next combination for the same $60 on the split..
We have accomplished this smaller loss of $60 rather than $110 once the first team loses with no decrease in the win when both teams win. In both the single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and avoiding the worry as to which team to place first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds an element of luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, they should both be bet. Betting on one shouldn't be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who has a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the second team whenever the first team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he is not betting the second game when both lose. When compared to straight bettor, the "if" bettor has an additional cost of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he has fewer winners. Remember that next time someone tells you that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, you can find exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a confident expectation in mere two circumstances::
When there is no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of that you have no other choice is if you are the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of your tux so you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book has a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap in time, you pull out your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you only have $75 in your account.
As the old philosopher used to state, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your own face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your own two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is a great substitute for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the advantage of increased parlay odds of 13-5 on combined bets which have greater than the standard expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets must always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage comes from the fact that we make the next bet only IF among the propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig regardless of how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when one of our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the intended purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when among our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay without the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win would be $180 every time one of our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse minus the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
Whenever a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay has a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will review the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have already seen, if you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The actual possibility of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines privately and total are to one another, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a confident expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet than the parlay when making our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When coming up with two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out from the two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we need is really a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the game will go over the full total 53 � at the very least 72% of that time period as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point away from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of that time period isn't an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win an extra $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."