There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people with parlays. They will tout win rates much like probably the most impressive straight wager cappers. win55 to say, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On several sites you may have the privilege of working with some sort of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The fact is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you are in Vegas have a look at the discarded tickets you see spread everywhere. It's safe to assume that you will find nearly all these losers are made up of such bets positioned on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. Bettors are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the fact that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a typical straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Compared with many table games this is actually a fairly raised percentage. Plenty of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a couple of dice at the back wall.
Chance is important in everything the house provides. There are also steps that could be taken to reduce the edge in just about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as for example skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in an activity. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome over time.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages are more in line with keno, plus they are equally impossible to overcome over time. There is no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are drawn to risking a small amount of money for large payouts. The games that are most often played in the casino are slot machines that offer thousands or even millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of the bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as an incredible number of bettors go back home with nothing within their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of add up to or double the home minimum. This is because most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll reserve for sports betting. Since they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on a few games weekly they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. By doing this they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the end of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to a few units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they're keeping the size of their bets low they are not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed because it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay per week. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are put during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous number of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For instance, should you be placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. Because the number of bets you place increases it really is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark many times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will usually result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In 2009 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He managed to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you take into account I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are likely to follow his lead and continue using parlays I've a few pointers that will help in the end. First of all, the best value of all parlays is clearly the three team parlay. The difference between your house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, however the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a look at the graph you should understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you are going to make such an investment here are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a 4 or 5 5 team parlay, always make it 6 as well as 10. The difference between your house edge to include 1 or 2 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The home edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual probability of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. The House edge is about 10 points less than all three of those bets also it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them is the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed should be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to a few units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to improve your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.